Measuring the Intermittent Synchronicity of Macroeconomic Growth in Europe

نویسندگان

  • Patrick M. Crowley
  • Aaron P. Schultz
چکیده

Synchronization of growth rates are an important feature of international business cycles, particularly in relation to regional integration projects such as the single currency in Europe. Synchronization of growth rates clearly enhances the e¤ectiveness of European Central Bank monetary policy, ensuring that policy changes are attuned to the dynamics of growth and business cycles in the majority of member states. In this paper a dissimilarity metric is constructed by measuring the topological di¤erences between the GDP growth patterns in recurrence plots for individual countries. The results show that synchronization of growth rates were higher among the euro area member states during the second half of the 1980s and from 1997 to roughly 2002. Apart from these two time periods, euro area member states do not appear to be more synchronized than a group of major international countries, signifying that globalization was the major cause of international business cycle synchronization. Keywords: Euro area, business cycles, growth cycles, recurrence plots, synchronicity, convergence JEL classi…cation: C49, E32, F49 Acknowledgements: An earlier version of this paper was originally presented as a poster at the 3rd Recurrence Plot Symposium in Montreal, Quebec, Canada in September, 2009, and several parts of this paper have been submitted to the International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos. The authors would like to thank Norbert Marwan, Michael Small and Andrew Hughes Hallett for comments. Intermittent Synchronization 2-2010

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عنوان ژورنال:
  • I. J. Bifurcation and Chaos

دوره 21  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2011